Israel-Iran: Before or After the Election?

In my last post on this topic, I painted a scary scenario about the impending war between Israel and Iran that is admittedly far-fetched.  But some milder variations of this scenario are not far-fetched.  The most far-fetched aspect of that scenario concerns the probability that Israel would use nukes to attack a US carrier.  I think the firestorm of opposition within the US to any overt attack by the US on Israel would be politically suicidal for the Democrats, even if they manage to be victorious in the upcoming election, and thus an Israeli response of such drastic proportions as I painted in my last post would not be precipitated.

But Mr. Netanyahu is surely weighing his options.  He is surely considering that Mr. Obama may do nothing to help Israel, or at least may be very slow and deliberately ineffective in coming to Israel's aid after the election.  Prior to the election, Mr. Obama may have something to gain from at least appearing to help Israel.

Iran has stated that they will close the straight of Hormuz if they are attacked.  Surely they are also counting on an Obama electoral victory as the best scenario for them.  Romney and the Republicans are clearly more hawkish and would surely be a strong ally to Israel, but not until late January 2013.

Surely Iran must realize that if they attack any US assets in the Persian Gulf, there will be strong retaliation.  Mr. Obama will not have a choice.  If it is merely a matter of coming to Israel's aid, he can probably get away with slow rolling the response, whether it is before the election or after.  But a direct attack on US assets is another matter entirely.

Thus Iran's most likely response to any attack by Israel is to unleash Hezbollah to attack Israel.  This will be devastating for both Lebanon and Syria, since Israel, if they are engaged in a full-blow war with Iran, will not have the time, resources or will to be careful in how they go after Hezbollah.  They will blow up whole city blocks to get at Hezbollah's leadership and not bother with pinpointing them in a specific building.  And the people of Israel -- and the press -- will have little sympathy for Hezbollah if they attack Israel.

But most of Israel's military assets will be focused on Iran.  Everyone talks about how difficult it will be for their bombers to reach Iran, with re-fueling necessary, but people are probably overlooking Israel's long-range missile capability.  The Jericho III ICBM, although designed to deliver nukes, can also likely carry conventional warheads.  A 2000 lb conventional explosive with bunker busting, ground penetrating capabilities and pin-point accuracy (which the Israeli's are quite capable of achieving) can do much damage.  It might buy them a few years and provide a warning to the international community -- and more importantly, to Iran -- that they need to get serious about dismantling Iran's nuclear program.

On the other hand, one such missile on Ahmadinejad's residence might have a similar effect.

But the most important question is that of timing.  Right now, it seems that Netanyahu is leaning toward doing it before the election, even if he unwittingly helps Obama win the election by giving the latter an opportunity to strut his stuff as commander-in-chief in front of the American people.  But that might be a big mistake for Netanyahu, since Obama might do a 180 degree turn and become his nemesis immediately after the election.  He could become Israel's worst nightmare.  Just as Obama has signaled to the Russians, he'll be a lot freer after the election.

On the other hand, the price of oil will go through the roof if such a war breaks out.  Iran can easily make the whole world pay for Israel's decision.  Nonetheless, Obama can come out looking like a hero if he bombs Iran into submission and brings Israel and Iran into direct talks with each other and forces them to sign a peace treaty or non-aggression pact.  In the meantime, Syria's Assad will likely have fallen and Obama can take credit for that as well. He can give glowing speeches about how a new day has dawned in the Middle East and how peace is finally within our grasp, etc., etc., while coasting to an easy victory in November.  But then he'll start to tighten the screws on Israel.

A Scary Scenario

Iran waits until after the election to attack Israel via Hezbollah.  Israel counters with attacks on Iran.  Instead of joining in the attack, President Obama declares Israel in the wrong and sends aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean.  He sends attack jets against Israel.  Israel defends itself and shoots down some American planes.  America bombs Israel in retaliation.  Israel responds by nuking the US carrier.  Obama responds by nuking Israel.

The Muslim world applauds.  The American Jewish community is dumbfounded and sits there with their mouths open in disbelief.  But the left-wing Jewish intelligentsia immediately revs up the spin machine to brainwash everybody into thinking it was a good and necessary thing anyway and that the Middle East problem is now solved for good.

If you've seen Dinesh D'Souza's move "2016," this is not so far-fetched.  Let's hope and pray it doesn't come to this.  Yet remember what Obama said to the Russians?  Wait until after the election?

In reality, Israel may not wait until after the election because they may conclude that the only way they can get Obama to help them in their fight is to engage Iran before the election.  Obama wouldn't risk alienating the Jewish vote by withholding support for Israel.  Therefore he would send his Navy jets in from the Persian Gulf to help obliterate Iranian nuke sites.

And he would win the election and be hailed for being such a "bold commander-in-chief."   It would be like the Bin Laden killing on steroids.

Romney's Pick of Paul Ryan

From George Will: "Romney may have concluded: There is nothing Obama won’t say about me, because he has nothing to say for himself, so I will chose a running mate whose seriousness about large problems and ideas underscores what the president has become — silly and small." http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-romneys-presidential-pick/2012/08/12/9075c0e4-e48c-11e1-936a-b801f1abab19_story.html