The recent sudden collapse of large swaths of territory in Iraq, falling under control of Islamist State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), is a testimony to the idiotic policy of the Obama Administration, idiotic for setting politically-motivated timetables for withdrawal from Iraq.
Timetables like this in armed conflict are idiotic for several reasons. First, it sends a message to the adversaries that all they have to do is simmer down, go into hibernation, regroup, and refortify until the magic date of withdrawal arrives. Can you imagine a battle, like the won currently being waged by the Iraqi government in Tikrit against ISIS, being fought under the announced premise that the attacking government troops would simply declare victory at noon today and then retreat? What kind of a battle plan is that? Announcing when you are going to quit the battle? That's like announcing to your opponent in a football game that you are going to put in your B team after the half. What would your opponent do? They would beef up their defense, prevent you from scoring, rest up on offense, and then bring in their crack offensive team after the halftime show -- and then decimate your B team.
So, timetable policies in armed conflicts are idiotic in that they basically reveal to your adversary your strategy. You simply don't tip your hand like that in armed conflict! This is Military Doctrine 101. Don't reveal your strategy to your enemy! It is foolish and childish.
Timetables like these are also foolish because you can only negotiate from a position of strength. Only while you are in control of the situation -- i.e., have significant troops in country -- can you negotiate either with your adversary (if even possible) or, more importantly, with the team you are going to leave behind. In the case of Iraq, the Maliki government and their military supporters -- on whom we spent billions to train and equip -- won't concede anything like a Status of Forces Agreement between us and them if they know we are planning to vacate anyway, based on politically motivated timetable. They too, like our adversaries, will simply wait us out. Once you've left the country and put them totally in control, you've lost your strength at the negotiating table.
A third reason why such timetables are idiotic is that they convey an overall message of weakness -- or fecklessness -- to our adversaries on the larger geopolitical stage. We are seeing this in spades as Iran rushes in to fill the vacuum we've left behind in Iraq. Broadcasting our strategy emboldens them to take action. This message was clearly not lost on Russia, who after Obama's vacillation and phony red lines in Syria seized an opportunity to seize Crimea. It probably won't be long before China grabs more territory, knowing that we will do nothing but wring our hands and complain at the UN, where they have veto. Taiwan is probably in the cross hairs already.
A fourth reason is that such weakness conveys a message to "allies" like Saudi Arabia and Eqypt that they cannot count on the US for current or future support, that they'll have to go it alone. And where do you think the money for ISIS is coming from? From Saudi Arabia! This conflict, above all, is a larger Sunni-Shiite conflict that now threatens to embroil the whole region.
In Syria it is essentially a Sunni-Shiite conflict. Assad is an Alawite, an offshoot of Shiites. His opponents are all Sunnis. Hezbollah in Lebanon is supporting Assad. Guess what religion they are. That's right, they're Shiites! Iran is supporting Assad in Syria. Guess what religion they are. Yep, you guessed it right again: They are Shiites! Guess what religion Maliki and his supporters are? OK, this is getting tedious, but I sense you are getting the picture now. The Sunni-Shiite conflict in Syria, with its 100,000+ civilian casualties and millions of refugees has spilled over into Iraq.
And within the Sunni ranks you have varying degrees of nastiness. There are moderates like the Free Syrian Army (at least they are pretending to be moderates, perhaps like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt were pretending to be moderates once upon a time, at least until they came into power -- with our help). And there are the nasty ones like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, who make Al-Qaeda look like moderates.
Anyway you look at it, setting a timetable in armed conflict is precisely not the thing to do. The territory -- and more importantly the hearts and minds -- that we fought and died for in Iraq was not yet ready to be abandoned. If we didn't like the Maliki government, we should have done something about it while we were there and had strength in negotiations. But we foolishly announced a timetable for withdrawal and that set all of this mess in motion.
I have not seen in over 50 years of monitoring current events -- sort of a hobby of mine -- a US foreign policy so short sided, childish and downright foolish -- idiotic from almost any perspective.
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